WHY CHINA PLANS TO RUN TRAINS FROM KUNMING ALL THE WAY TO SINGAPORE
The East Coast Rail Link (ECRL), a mega rail project in Malaysia being built by the China Communications Construction Company (CCCC), seeing its first tracks being laid in December 2023. (Via X.com/chinaorgcn)
During his visit to Malaysia last week, Chinese Premier Li Qiang said China was willing to study a plan to connect its railway projects in the Southeast Asian countries of Malaysia, Laos, and Thailand for “enhancing regional connectivity”.
Li attended the groundbreaking ceremony for Malaysia’s East Coast Rail Link (ECRL) Gombak Integrated Terminal Station with Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim.
The nearly $10 billion ECRL project is sometimes linked to a China-led “pan-Asian” railway network that would connect the southern Chinese city and transportation hub of Kunming with Singapore at the tip of the Malaysian peninsula by lines running across multiple Southeast Asian countries.
China has made significant investments in the region as part of its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) to enhance infrastructure development in Asia, Africa and South America. What is the ECRL project, where does it stand currently, and how does it fit into China’s greater regional and geopolitical aspirations?
What is the ECRL?
The 665-km-long ECRL will connect Kota Bharu on the Kelantan river, close to Malaysia’s northeastern coast with Port Klang on the strategically important Strait of Malacca on the country's west coast.
Map showing the ECRL in Malaysia, extending from its east coast to the south west. (Via Malaysia Rail Link)
The massive investment in the project is expected to bring enormous economic benefits through improved connectivity, including the movement of freight, and tourism. Chinese state media outlet CGTN described ECRL as “the biggest economic and trade cooperation project between China and Malaysia”.
Work on the ECRL began in 2017, but suffered due to funding constraints, and remained stalled for several years. It is now expected to be completed by 2027.
On a visit to China in 2018, then Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad said the project would be frozen owing to its high costs. “I believe China itself does not want to see Malaysia become a bankrupt country,” he said.
Domestic politics in Malaysia also played a role in slowing down the project. Mahathir's predecessor Najib Razak, who was Prime Minister when the project began, was jailed for embezzlement from a state wealth fund. A 2019 investigation by The Wall Street Journal found that China had allegedly offered to help Najib out of the scandal in exchange for signing infra deals. This added to the pressure on Mahathir's government to act against Chinese investments in Malaysia.
It was only in 2020 that the project resumed after a new deal was negotiated with China at a lower cost.
What is the planned pan-Asian rail network?
Infrastructure projects to link Southeast Asian countries have been proposed in the past, including during European colonial rule in the region.
More recently, the pan-Asian rail network was conceptualised in the form of three links — a western line from Kunming via Myanmar and Thailand; a central line via Laos and Thailand; and an eastern line via Vietnam, Cambodia, and Thailand.
The proposed routes of the pan-Asian rail network. The red portion, connecting Laos and China, is the only operational route yet. (Via Wikimedia Commons)
Another line would connect Thailand’s capital Bangkok with Malaysia and Singapore. The latter is one of the most developed countries in the region, with around 30% of global trade passing through the global shipping choke point at which the city state sits.
What is the current status of the railway project?
While the idea “remains powerful” for bolstering economic growth and regional cooperation, it has faced roadblocks for multiple reasons. Only the Laos-China section has been operational since 2021, connecting the north and south of Laos with Kunming.
Like Malaysia, Thailand has also faced problems of high costs and the government's wariness about taking assistance from China. In January this year, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi asked Thailand to increase the pace of its work, which is expected to be completed in 2028 but may be delayed.
Doubts have been expressed over the projections of the economic gains from the project. Jonathan E Hillman, a political economist with the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and an expert in emerging infrastructure in Eurasia, pointed out that the width of the railway tracks across these countries vary, making seamless transportation of cargo challenging. (‘The Emperor’s New Road: China and the Project of the Century’)
There are concerns over demand as well. “Most people travelling from Kunming to Singapore would still prefer to fly, which will remain cheaper and faster. Likewise, cargo shuttled between the two destinations would be cheaper if transported first to the coast and then by boat to Singapore. Most studies have found that a pan-Asian rail system would complement maritime shipping rather than compete with it,” Hillman wrote.
What is the larger context of China's interest in this regional connectivity project?
Hillman recalled that plans for the rail link project predate President Xi Jinping's BRI. At the 10th ASEAN summit in 2007, “China’s Premier Wen Jiabao cited the pan-Asian railway...and Chinese state media predicted completion of all three routes by 2015,” he wrote. “Despite missing these deadlines, China has made the pan-Asian railway an even more central part of its regional engagement,” he said.
China has direct influence in Southeast Asia on account of geography and strong economic and cultural ties. According to the Chinese government, “In 2023, the trade volume between China and ASEAN reached USD 911.7 billion, making China and ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) each other's largest trading partners for four consecutive years.”
With the BRI, these ties can be further strengthened. China has emerged as a provider of loans for infrastructure projects in countries that have historically lacked them, the apprehensions in many countries about the terms of the financing notwithstanding.
China's aggressive moves and territorial claims in the South China Sea have made many countries in the region nervous, and Beijing hopes to leverage economic ties built through infra investments to develop goodwill and trust. China has rejected accusations of practising “debt trap diplomacy”, which involves providing loans at high interest rates, and then seizing control of strategic assets when the debtor countries fail to pay back.
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2024-06-28T14:45:01Z dg43tfdfdgfd