ISRAEL WOULD BENEFIT FROM IMPROVING RELATIONS WITH UKRAINE
Israel has stood on the sidelines, refusing to give Ukraine substantial support in its resistance to Russian imperial aggression. However, as Israel battles Iranian proxies in the Middle East, Ukraine battles Russia, one of Iran’s primary partners, in its own country. Israel has taken a cautious approach to the Russo-Ukrainian war, trying to avoid upsetting Russia. What Israeli officials don’t see is that the quicker Ukraine can defeat Russia, the greater the long-term damage to Iran will be.
In its latest move, the Israeli government has imposed new travel restrictions on Ukrainians, with Ukraine responding in kind to Israelis traveling to Ukraine. Relations between Israel and Ukraine remain strained. In 2022, while Ukrainian cities were being pummeled by Russian bombs, Ukraine’s government asked Israel for air defense systems to counter Iranian missiles and attack drones, but Israel refused.
Israel also blocked Washington from sending US-owned Iron Dome batteries to Ukraine in 2023. However, there are signs of change as the United States, Israel, and Ukraine are currently negotiating the supply of eight Patriot air defense systems to Ukraine from Israel.
The reason for Israel's hesitancy
Israel’s hesitant stance in supporting Ukraine can be attributed to its complex relationship with Russia. Israel maintains a level of cooperation with Russia, particularly in Syria, where Russian forces have a large presence. The Israeli government believes it is crucial for Israel’s security to have a good relationship with Russia as it seeks to counter Iranian influence and Hezbollah operations in the region.
Any direct confrontation or significant support for Ukraine could jeopardize this delicate balance, potentially leading to more aggressive actions by Russian forces in Syria against Israeli interests.
HOWEVER, ISRAEL’S current approach overlooks the strategic benefits of supporting Ukraine. By aiding Ukraine in its fight against Russia, Israel could indirectly weaken Iran’s position. Iran and Russia have forged a close alliance, with Iran providing drones and other military support to Russia. Kyrylo Budanov, head of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry’s intelligence services (HUR), also said that he believed Russia sent weapons to Hamas.
Russia’s relationship with Hamas has also been growing closer, as Russia has historically been a hotbed of antisemitism. Moscow continues to label Ukraine’s leadership as a “neo-Nazi” regime, even though Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is Jewish.
Russian state media and social media disinformation operations have also been working to support Hamas and undermine Israel and the US. Furthermore, over 75% of Israelis support Ukraine according to a survey by Shlomo Filber and Tzuriel Sharon of Direct Polls LTD in 2022.
A defeat or significant weakening of Russia in Ukraine would strain Iran’s alliance with Russia, reducing Iran’s capacity to project power in the Middle East. This outcome aligns with Israel’s long-term security interests.
Moreover, like other Western powers, Israel could gain significant advantages by partnering with Ukraine’s military to conduct strikes against Russian forces in the Middle East if the need arises.
By March 2024, the Kyiv Post reported that Ukrainian special forces from HUR were collaborating with Syrian rebels to launch attacks against Russian mercenaries in Syria. These operations targeted Russian forces stationed near the Golan Heights, a region internationally recognized as occupied by Israel. HUR has been focusing on striking Russian checkpoints, foot patrols, and military vehicle columns, among other strategic targets in Syria.
Since the beginning of 2024, Russia has established over 10 observation points along the border area between Syria and the Golan Heights, near Israel. Iranian militias have also been actively operating in southern Syria, which Israel has been bombing.
Maurizio Molinari, writing in la Repubblica, suggests that Russia has been gathering critical intelligence on the weapons used by Israel in southern Syria, which closely resemble the Western arms supplied to Ukraine. As a result, Ukrainian attacks could significantly disrupt Russian intelligence-gathering efforts, hindering their ability to analyze and adapt to these weapons. This disruption would not only impact Russia’s operations in Ukraine but also those of Iran, one of Russia’s closest allies.
If Israel ever needed plausible deniability and wanted to conduct strikes against Russian forces supporting the Syrian government and Iranian proxies in Syria, they could opt to provide financial support and intelligence to Ukrainian special forces to conduct those attacks. Ukraine would benefit from forcing Russia to spend more resources protecting itself and Israel would be able to conduct strikes as needed vis-à-vis Ukraine.
If Russia were to prevail in Ukraine, the Western world would be significantly weakened, and the authoritarian powers threatening the US and Israel would be emboldened. The sooner Israel realizes that supporting Ukraine on the battlefield is in its long-term interest, the quicker Iran’s power will begin to erode as one of its principal backers falters.
The writer is a freelance journalist and an associate research fellow at the Henry Jackson Society. He can be found on X @DVKirichenko.
2024-07-03T00:20:25Z dg43tfdfdgfd