THE BULGING IN-TRAY WAITING FOR LABOUR LEADER SIR KEIR STARMER

Sir Keir Starmer will have a bulging in-tray of issues to swiftly deal with if – as is expected – he today wins the keys to No 10.

Several of them threaten to take the shine off any 'honeymoon' period enjoyed by the Labour leader and have appeared on a potential 'disaster list' drawn up by Sue Gray, his chief of staff.

Here, the Mail's Chief Political Correspondent David Churchill takes a look at some of the most pressing issues:

Immigration

Before Sir Keir's even had the chance to hang new curtains in No 10, the first small-boat of migrants of his premiership will have landed on British shores.

It means tackling Channel crossings will be top of his priority list, with arrivals already up by 25 per cent between January and April this year compared with 2023.

His first act will be to officially scrap Rishi Sunak's flagship Rwanda deportation policy, which he's branded an 'expensive gimmick'.

He will start work on creating a new Border Security Command containing hundreds of new investigators, intelligence officers and cross-border police officers.

The hope is they will tackle people smuggling networks upstream more effectively and stem crossings.

But he will also have to decide what to do with the 90,000 migrants currently earmarked for removal to Rwanda. They are likely to be introduced to the asylum system. The Refugee Council charity estimates that around 70 per cent – about 60,000 – will be granted asylum given the profile of the countries they've come from.

This could be hugely controversial. Meanwhile, boats will continue to arrive for as long as it takes to train new staff for the new Border Security Command.

Defence and NATO summit

Sir Keir will travel to Washington for the first international summit of his premiership on Tuesday.

The Nato gathering will be his first chance to press the flesh of global leaders and key allies such as US President Joe Biden on the world stage.

But the gathering could prove tricky diplomatically, with some members of the military alliance expected to push for a new agreement for countries to raise GDP defence spending from 2 per cent to 2.5 per cent amid the war in Ukraine.

Although Sir Keir has said a Labour government wants to do this, he has not set a date, meaning he could come under pressure to spell out when he plans to achieve it and to find new money.

NHS waiting lists

During the election campaign, Labour pledged to eliminate the 7.5million waiting list backlog within its first term.

Sir Keir's first act will be to order his health spokesman, expected to be Wes Streeting, to get around the negotiating table with the BMA union, whose junior doctors' strikes have been compounding the crisis.

Mr Streeting has admitted there will have to be 'movement on pay' to get the medics back on to hospital wards.

But he has also described junior doctors' demands for a 35 per cent pay hike as 'unaffordable'.

Work will also need to begin on delivering an extra two million NHS operations, scans and appointments a year – or 40,000 every week – as promised in Labour's manifesto.

It has said it will do this by 'incentivising staff' to work longer hours, but is yet to draw up a detailed plan.

Pay and strikes

Sir Keir faces a post-election clash with the party's union backers over public sector pay as it will have to decide the salaries of at least 2.5million workers.

This includes nurses, teachers and civil servants. The Treasury has been sitting on recommendations made by pay review bodies.

A Labour government will have to soon decide whether to follow these so that definitive costs can be drawn up ahead of an Autumn Budget and so councils can plan.

The Tory Government was poised to offer a 4 per cent increase for most workers. But this could be rejected if junior doctors are offered a double-digit hike by Sir Keir's administration, potentially sparking widespread strikes unless more is offered.

Autumn Budget

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) will be ordered to draw up a forecast of public finances.

This is so Rachel Reeves, who will almost certainly be appointed Chancellor, can hold an Autumn Budget. 

A Bill giving greater powers to the OBR is expected to be included in Labour's first King's speech. 

The planned law would empower the OBR to independently publish a forecast of any major fiscal event to prevent a repeat of former PM Liz Truss's catastrophic 2022 mini-Budget.

The OBR requires around ten weeks' notice to provide an independent forecast, meaning one will need to be requested shortly after Labour comes to power.

Prisons

Sir Keir's first act on justice is likely to be to let out hundreds of prisoners early because of chronic overcrowding in jails.

Labour has pledged to deliver 14,000 extra prison places to tackle the crisis. The party's justice spokesman, expected to be Shabana Mahmood, will be ordered to find locations for these to be built and make arrangements for new staff to be recruited and trained.

But in the meantime, Sir Keir has said that 'in all likelihood' his government will need to continue the early release of prisoners.

Under a policy introduced last October, some less serious offenders are being released up to 18 days early. This was extended to 70 days in May.

But Sir Keir may need to go even further by releasing more serious offenders early amid a prison population explosion caused by tougher sentences and court backlogs following the pandemic.

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2024-07-04T22:14:09Z dg43tfdfdgfd